Swine Flu in Australia
It's getting closer...
PLEASE NOTE: I am not a doctor or medical practitioner of any kind. I am not qualified to provide medical advice; and this article is intended as a general commentary from a lay-person, not as a qualified assessment of the situation, which may (and is likely to) have changed since the writing of this article.
If you believe that you may have contracted the swine flu virus, don't panic, contact your local GP's office (preferably by telephone) to seek advice and follow their instructions.
When news of the latest pandemic first appeared six weeks or so ago it met with the typical media frenzy. "Global pandemic", "killer flu", etc, etc...we've seen these kind of headlines before, and I, like many others I suspect, brushed them off as the latest fear strategy to sell newspapers. The global recession (at least in Australia) hadn't really hit hard and there was already talk of recovery - they needed something else to drive sales.
After perhaps a week, it was revealed that, despite the global panic, only one person had actually died of swine flu, or the H1N1 virus. This served to confirm my suspicions, and the media interest seemed to reduce considerably.
But the virus was more persistent than that. News of more cases, and more fatalities, continued to appear. For me, this is a cause for great concern. The World Health Organisation (WHO) has now raised the status of the virus and now describes it as "moderate pandemic", which is defined as:
- Most people recover from infection without the need for hospitalization or medical care.
- Overall, national levels of severe illness from influenza A(H1N1) appear similar to levels seen during local seasonal influenza periods, although high levels of disease have occurred in some local areas and institutions.
- Overall, hospitals and health care systems in most countries have been able to cope with the numbers of people seeking care, although some facilities and systems have been stressed in some localities.
Source: World Health Organization, "What is Phase 6?", June 11 2009
My basic understanding of the virus is this:
- it is no more potent than normal flu
- it is more contagious
- it is no more likely to mutate than normal flu
My personal conclusion, therefore, is that only the same people that would normally be at serious risk from the flu virus (elderly and very young) are at risk from H1N1. The possibility that the virus will be more potent than normal flu, putting more people at risk of death, is based on the ability of the disease to mutate significantly, but this is only as likely as normal flu mutating in the same way. The Times of India reported on June 2nd that, according to scientists at India's National Institute of Virology, "[the virus] is essentially similar to the one that struck Mexico, Canada and the US", meaning it hasn't mutated much.
However, my main concern is how contagious the virus is. Irrespective of whether many people are going to lose their lives, imagine what would happen if 20, 30 or 40 percent of the population were suddenly incapacitated through flu. Greg Tannock, a virologist from the Burnet Institute in Melbourne, has been reported in the Sydney Morning Herald as saying that up to one in three people [in Victoria] could have picked up the virus by now. The protective equipment issued to GPs to protect themselves from the virus has yet to arrive in many practices, allegedly, and the message for people to call the surgery if they suspect they have the virus (instead of presenting in person and putting others at risk) has not been widely publicised.
So, let's say that the virus affects people for a week, at least enough to incapacitate many of the sufferers in some way, and that up to 1 in 3 people will be affected. This could mean a significant percentage of the population (up to 30% if the virus spreads very quickly) will be incapacitated at the same time. Public servants (doctors, police, bus drivers, etc) will be in the front line and most likely to catch the virus early, with many of the remainder of the population not wanting to leave their homes for fear of catching the virus themselves. The country could be brought to a stand-still.This is a serious national security risk.
My ex-pommy, stiff upper lip says "stay calm, don't panic"; the "new Aussie" in me says "we'll be 'right", but when should serious concern turn to action? The virus is currently 2-degrees of separation from me. A co-worker's mother works with someone who has been confirmed as having the virus. She'll be tested now and if found positive, my colleague will be placed in isolation and tested. If she's subsequently found positive, it's likely that it's too late for me to protect myself, and I have a 20-month old daughter and a pregnant wife to worry about.
What do you think? Should the government be providing more guidance? Do you think enough is being done to educate and protect the public? I'd be very interested to hear your comments.